Agenda
7:15 - 8:30 p.m. Discussion
Event Summary
Ever wonder why the bold predictions from experts on TV and in the news so often miss the mark? From stock market forecasts to political outcomes, confident predictions abound, yet our future remains stubbornly unpredictable.
Join the Austin Forum for a fascinating book discussion on "Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail—and Why We Believe Them Anyway" by Dan Gardner. Craig Wheeler, author of “The Path to Singularity” and a professor emeritus of astronomy, will help us dive into the psychology behind our desire for certainty and explore Gardner's compelling argument that the most confident "expert" pundits are often the most likely to be wrong.
This is a conversation about critical thinking in an age of information overload. We'll discuss:
Why our brains are wired to trust confident-sounding predictions, even when they're baseless.
How to distinguish between genuine expertise and confident "hedgehogs" who oversimplify complex issues.
The impact of failed predictions on our society, from financial markets to public policy.
As we approach the start of a new year, we’re all going to hear about predictions for 2026—including in our own Austin Forum event in January! After this discussion we will all be more careful about making predictions and knowing how to assess predictions made by others. It should make for some great holiday conversations with family, too. ;-)
Whether you've read the book cover-to-cover or are just intrigued by the topic, you're welcome to join the discussion. Come share your thoughts on how we can all become smarter consumers of information and make better decisions in an uncertain world.
Moderator
Jay Boisseau, Executive Director, Austin Forum on Technology & Society and CEO, Vizias
Jay Boisseau is an experienced, recognized leader and strategist in advanced computing technologies, with over 30 years in the technology roles. Jay is the executive director and founder of The Austin Forum on Technology & Society, which he created in 2007. The Austin Forum is one of the pillars of the Austin tech community, hosting dozens of events every year that feature technology experts and thoughts leaders and that attract technology leaders and professionals, business and community leaders, and more. Jay’s other current roles include: advanced computing strategist at Google in the Google Cloud HPC team; CEO of Vizias, a technology consultancy; and lead owner of Remedy in downtown Austin. Jay has held previous leadership positions at the Austin AI Alliance as the founding executive director, Dell Technologies as an HPC & AI strategist, the Texas Advanced Computing Center (TACC) as the founding director, the San Diego Supercomputer Center, and the Arctic Region Supercomputing Center. He received his doctorate in astronomy from UT Austin, and his undergraduate degree in astronomy and physics from the University of Virginia. For Jay's full professional bio, visit here.
Attendance Instructions
Online via Google Meet
Once you register via Eventbrite, you will receive the direct link in your confirmation email. You will also receive the link in a reminder email before the event.
Space is limited, so please register only if you’re confident you can attend—and kindly cancel your registration if your plans change so we can open your spot to another participant.